The theme this week is a tug-of-war. Mortgage rates fell for a fourth straight week to their lowest level in seven weeks, and buyers responded with a jump in applications. But a hotter-than-expected inflation report has markets all but certain the Fed raises rates in December, and Treasury yields climbed back above 5% today.

Meanwhile, NAR's annual buyer and seller survey shows more consumers than ever are working with agents, NAR rewrote key MLS data rules at its New Orleans conference, and Compass made its cooperation rules official as the MLS lawsuits keep stacking up. Here's what matters and what to do about it.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey, released today, put the 30-year fixed at 7.11%, down from 7.18% last week but still well above 6.24% a year ago. The 15-year fixed fell to 6.45% from 6.57%. Freddie Mac's Sam Khater said rates are at their "lowest level in seven weeks."

Buyers noticed. The Mortgage Bankers Association's survey, out Wednesday, had the 30-year conforming rate at 7.21%, down from 7.30% and the lowest since mid-September. Total applications rose 6.2% for the week, and seasonally adjusted purchase applications jumped 8%, though unadjusted purchase activity is still 18% below a year ago. Adjustable-rate loans slipped to 10.9% of applications, but HousingWire reports ARMs made up 17% of October rate locks in Optimal Blue's data, the highest share in its records back to 2019.

Read more: Freddie Mac · HousingWire on the MBA survey

What it means for you: Four down weeks and an 8% jump in purchase applications tell you buyers are waking up. Make sure they're waking up with you. Call everyone who paused this fall and get them in front of their lender this week to rerun the numbers. Section 2 explains why this window may not stay open long. With ARMs at a record share of locks, expect more questions about adjustable loans. Leave the loan advice to the lender, and make sure buyers ask how and when the payment could change.

"Rates have come down four weeks in a row and are at a seven-week low. With the Fed likely raising rates in December, this could be a good window. Want me to have [lender] rerun your numbers this week so you know exactly where you stand?"

(As always, vet the script and make it your own.)

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast, with core prices up 0.3% and shelter up 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Tuesday. BLS couldn't publish an official annual inflation rate because October 2025 data was never collected during last year's government shutdown. The jobs report, out last Friday, was strong too: employers added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment held at 4.1%.

Markets reacted fast. As of today, CME FedWatch shows about 93% odds of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting, according to Mortgage Professional America, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said this week a half-point move should be on the table if inflation stays high. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.07% today. That's why this week's lower mortgage rates may not hold.

Read more: Real Estate News on the inflation report · MPA on rates and Fed odds

What it means for you: Don't promise anyone that rates will keep falling. The data points the other way, and the four-week slide could reverse quickly. For buyers who are ready, help them decide based on what they can afford today, not on a rate they hope to see. For every deal under contract, confirm the rate lock expiration with the lender against the closing date before December 9. Strong job growth is the good news here: First American's Sam Williamson told Real Estate News it "may give some households the income to move."

NAR's 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, covering transactions from July 2025 through June 2026, found 90% of buyers used an agent, up from 88% and the highest in four decades. 92% of sellers used an agent, an all-time high, and for-sale-by-owner sales held at 5%. The tough news is in the buyer mix: first-time buyers were just 22% of purchases, barely up from last year's record low, and their median age stayed at a record 40. Sellers stayed in their homes a median of 12 years before selling, also a record.

Real Estate News highlights two numbers every agent should sit with: 88% of buyers said they would definitely or probably use their agent again, but only 24% of repeat buyers actually did.

Read more: NAR's top 10 takeaways · Real Estate News

What it means for you: Consumers still want an agent. The problem is they forget which one. With sellers staying 12 years, your past clients won't move for a long time, so the relationship has to outlast the transaction. Put every past client on a touch plan you'll actually follow, and ask for referrals out loud. And with first-time buyers at 40, many are established professionals who need a plan, not a pep talk. Pair them with a good lender early.

"It's been a while since we closed on your home, and I just wanted to check in. How's the house treating you? And if anyone you know is thinking about buying or selling, I'd love to help them the way I helped you."

At NAR NXT in New Orleans, NAR's MLS policy committee approved four changes on November 7, and the Executive Committee gave final approval the next day. The biggest: MLSs can now separate MLS participation from access to data feeds (like IDX and syndication), treating feeds as separate services with "reasonable, objective" eligibility rules. Another prohibits any use of MLS data that isn't explicitly allowed in a participation or license agreement. NAR President Kevin Brown framed it as supporting the MLS system, not running it. Several of the changes give local MLSs options rather than mandates, and effective dates weren't spelled out.

On the legal front, Judge Lindsay Jenkins, who is overseeing the Tuccori homebuyer commission lawsuit in Illinois federal court, is not ready to grant final approval of settlements with NAR and brokerages including Compass, HomeServices, eXp and Anywhere. In a November 6 filing, she asked for more information, including each defendant's ability to pay and estimated recovery per class member.

Read more: Real Estate News on the MLS policies · Real Estate News on Tuccori

What it means for you: Nothing changes in your day-to-day today, but who gets your listing data, and what they can do with it, is being redrawn. Watch for notices from your MLS about data feed or license agreement changes, and read them before you sign. On Tuccori, a delayed ruling doesn't change your obligations. Keep your written buyer agreements and compensation disclosures clean. If you have questions about how a settlement affects you, ask your managing broker or a real estate attorney.

On November 11, Compass formalized a Broker-to-Broker Cooperation Policy. Its agents must share listing information with outside agents on request, including on Private Exclusive and Coming Soon listings, respond in a timely way, and allow showings to buyers' agents when showings are permitted, unless the seller directs otherwise in writing. For listings marketed off the MLS, Compass tells agents to follow Bright MLS's cooperation rule. CEO Robert Reffkin wrote on LinkedIn that "the MLS isn't just a cooperation system anymore."

The policy follows record third-quarter results reported November 5: $3.9 billion in revenue, $62 million in net income and 85,476 agents. Meanwhile, Inman reports nine MLSs are now suing Compass in two federal cases, and Compass is suing CRMLS. These are competing claims in early-stage lawsuits.

Read more: Real Estate News on the policy · Real Estate News on Compass Q3

What it means for you: If you have a buyer who wants a Compass private or Coming Soon listing, you now have a written policy to point to. Reach out, ask for the details and request a showing. If you're a listing agent anywhere, know your own MLS's rules on Coming Soon, pre-marketing and listing submission cold, and document your seller's marketing choices in writing. For the bigger picture, our Fight Over the MLS post breaks down what's at stake.

A new Redfin report, covered by Real Estate News, found condo sellers outnumbered buyers by 123% in September, roughly 197,000 sellers to 88,500 buyers. That's the largest gap since 2013, up from 95.5% a year earlier. The median condo sale price was $339,000, down 0.8% from a year ago, and 37% of condos sold had a price cut. Redfin points to rising insurance premiums and HOA fees, especially in Texas and Florida, but this is a national trend, not just a Sun Belt story.

Read more: Real Estate News

What it means for you: If you list condos, buyers have the upper hand, so price to the market from day one. Get the HOA budget, reserve study, any special assessments and insurance details upfront so buyers aren't surprised mid-deal. If a condo listing has been sitting, our Price Cut Conversation post walks you through bringing it up. For buyers, condos may be the most negotiable product in your market. Just have them review HOA documents carefully and get insurance quotes before they're locked in.

Rates are down four weeks in a row and buyers are responding, but the Fed may be about to change the math. That makes the next few weeks a window worth working. Call the buyers who paused, lock down every deal under contract, and remember that 90% of buyers and 92% of sellers still choose an agent. The only question is whether they remember to choose you. If you want a plan for turning this window into a strong spring, our 90-Day Roadmap to a Busy Spring lays it out. Stay consistent, and we'll see you next Friday.

Onward and upward!